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Animal minds unleashed by Donald Trump’s re -election were supposed to stimulate a flow of us. Instead, the best of Wall Street were seated on their hands while the volatile stock markets and the climbing of the trade war are undergoing any attempt to promote companies.
The agreement also spreads on this side of the Atlantic. But some bankers in the city of London now dare to hope for a wave of mergers and acquisitions, especially in the banking sector itself. “All major British banks have expanded their internal transactions teams in recent months,” said a bank boss. “Consolidation is back on the agenda.”
The activity of acquisition among British banks has been stifled since the 2008 financial crisis, when the Royal Scotland Bank has become an advertisement not to make mergers and acquisitions: the collapse after the purchase of 71 billion euros from the Dutch rival Abn Amro has too far extended its finances.
This same RBS, renamed Natwest, is now at the top of the lists of bankers of probable conolidators. Its shares have increased by 83% in the past year, in part in anticipation that the last of the rescue participation in the government of the government will be back in private hands in a few weeks. Last year, he bought most of the Bank of Sainsbury and he now seems eager to develop more, capitalizing on a relatively powerful acquisition currency: his shares, now negotiating once the accounting value of his net assets.
Barclays, too, was carefully acquired – last year, he took most of Tesco Bank’s affairs. The two main building companies have made the largest offers, the purchase of Virgin Money and Coventry buying the cooperative bank. The Yorkshire Building Society, number three, would also be swallowed.
The predators’ appetites are developing, as is a number of smaller rivals have become potential candidates to acquire. The Financial Times reported last month that Natwest had held higher level discussions With Santander to buy the British retail company from the Spanish group. Barclays also discussed a potential agreement with Santander. Santander UK’s performance dragged down the wider group. The TSB, also belonging to the Spanish, should be sold, especially if the BBVA parent succeeds in its pursuit of the Sabadell domestic rival.
For the moment, little has progressed beyond exploratory discussions. But the hearing of the British Supreme Court next month on the legality of historic banks automobile financing commissions for dealers will have large ramifications. If the judges support last year Decision of the Shock Court of AppealSeveral banks – including Lloyds, Close Brothers, Santander and Barclays – could cope with remuneration bills reaching billions of pounds. “The entire sector would not be invested,” said a experienced bank advisor. “It would be like a nuclear bomb that goes out.”
Close Brothers seems particularly vulnerable, since automotive financing represents a large part of its global activity. The decision, whatever it takes place, should remove the suspended uncertainty about the evaluation of the banks taken in the case. This can in turn be a trigger for the realization, especially between medium -sized banks. The most appreciated bank of this segment, Paragon – a mortgage specialist with purchasing with an exhibition less relating to the automotive financing case – is clearly interested in buying competitors if the opportunity arises, with a weakened brothers one of the obvious objectives.
But bankers are realistic that greater offers could take longer to consume. Santander UK, for example, is appreciated in his parents’ accounts with a much higher figure than he could expect realistically to a Natwest or a Barclays to pay him. TSB, on the other hand, could spend a year or more in limbo, in the middle of the obstacles to the hostile offer of BBVA for Sabadell.
Decision -makers can at least be favorable. The British government considers a larger and more efficient financial sector as a key to its growth program. Several superior regulators, considered obstructive for this mission, have left their posts. Competition and markets recently authorized Reversed his antitrust opposition to an acquisition of American Express. The regulators are also putting pressure by medium -sized banks to increase the threshold of an additional capital regime for lenders, a decision that would facilitate transactions.
If all these pieces are being set up in the coming months, certain banking offers can materialize. Who knows? American banks, such as Jpmorgan Chase, could even become so frustrated by unpredictable America from Trump that they place transaction tokens in the Pro-Croissance United Kingdom.
