Arvind Panagariya, president of the 16th finance committee, described an ambitious but credible vision for the future of India, emphasizing the strong economic trajectory and the country’s long -term growth potential. He stressed that India’s objective to become a nation developed by 2047 is at hand on the basis of several decades of solid economic performance.
Analyzing data in the past 21 years, Panagariya has stressed that India has undergone an average growth rate of 10.1% in current dollars – approximately 7.8% in real terms – even if the country has sailed major crises such as the 2008 global financial crisis, a sub -wise interior financial trunk and the COVVI -19 Palemim. This impressive performance, despite adversity, establishes a solid base for future ambitions, he said during the 49th celebrations of the day of civil accounts in New Delhi.
Panagariya said that if current growth rates are maintained, India could reach a saving of 10 dollars of dollars over the next decade. The vision “Viiksit Bharat”, which seeks to considerably increase the per capita income per capita. With a current per capita income of around $ 2,570, he plans that growth at an annual rate of approximately 7.3% could raise it at $ 14,000 by 2047.
By browsing short -term fluctuations, Panagariya noted that if the recent estimates for the first quarters of fiscal year 25 seemed modest compared to previous figures, a significant recovery in the third quarter indicated that temporary reversals should not obscure the long -term rise in the economy. He observed a natural human tendency to focus on negative news, even when global perspectives remain positive.
Based on data from 2003 to 2004 – a period when India’s high growth trajectory took a firm root – he stressed that the economy has managed three important crises over 21 years. By converting GDP figures into constant and current dollars, he illustrated that current dollars growth was on average 10.1% per year, which, when it was adjusted for inflation using the American GDP deflator, results in a real growth rate of 7.8%. In addition, a modest annual assessment of the roupie (more than 1%) explains the difference between the growth rates based on the roupine and the real dollar.
Several pillars underpin this optimistic forecast: stable democracy and effective governance offer a safe political backdrop; Low -resident per capita income provides significant catch -up potential; A large young population offers a demographic dividend; And economic and governance reforms gradually transform India into a more competitive and market -oriented economy.
In summary, Panagariya’s message is clear. Although short -term data can fluctuate, a broader and long -term perspective confirms that India is well positioned to maintain its high growth rates. Supporting a growth rate of 10.1% in the next decade could realistically achieve the threshold of $ 10 billions, while the “Viksit Bharat” objective increased per capita income is achievable with annual growth made up of 7.3%. By taking advantage of its stable institutions, its significant catch -up potential, its demographic advantages and its continuous reforms, India traces a credible path to the status of a developed nation by 2047.
