In unusually hot winter in northern India this year presents a risk for the cultivation of wheat, the experts warned, adding that this could again supply inflationary pressures.
India is the second world producer of wheat prices and large foods has already started to climb in January before the new harvest.
Although the government hopes for a good wheat harvest that would help keep prices in check, an unusually hot winter is a threat. The Indian Meteorological Department had predicted that most regions of India are experiencing temperatures above normal and precipitation lower than normal in February. A Western disturbance should however strike the north and northwest in the coming days and this could help the cultivation of wheat.
Paras Jasrai, principal economic analyst at India Ratings and Research, noted that the increase in temperatures had added to the uncertainty to the global economic environment which is at the dawn of new tariff wars. “January 2025 recorded higher temperatures than normal, if the dominant temperature in February (which was higher than normal) continues until March 2025, it will have an unfavorable impact on the production of cultures rabi which Can slow down the softening of food inflation. The rise in the increase in wheat prices is therefore a key supervisor, “he said on wholesale inflation data in January.
The inflation of the WPI in January 2025 took place at 2.31%, against 2.37% in March, food prices fell. The wholesale inflation in the food index was a 7.47% below five months last month. However, wholesale inflation in wheat began to resume and was 9.8% in January, which is more than two years. On a monthly basis, wheat inflation increased by 1.76%.
When Eco Research also noted that after a dry and warm January, the IMD predicts similar conditions to prevail in February, with maximum and minimum temperatures likely to be superior to normal in most parts of the country. “If this trend persists in March, then it could have an unfavorable impact on crops such as wheat, mustard, chickpea, apple,” he warned. In January-25, average precipitation was 72% lower than normal, while the average average temperature was the third highest since 1901.
For the moment, retail inflation measured by the consumer price index remains on the relaxation trajectory and arrived at 4.31% in January, against 5.22% in December 2022, analysts S ‘Waiting for it to decrease another 4% in the coming months. Retail inflation in cereals and products was 6.24% against 6.51% in December 2024.
