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The strong American gold demand is to “suck” ingots from certain countries while traders try to store it before the prices of American president Donald Trump on Canada and Mexico get high.
There is a “golden overabundance” in New York chests, Adrian Ash, director of the Bullionvault research, told CNBC.
More than 600 tonnes, or nearly 20 million ounces of gold, have been transported in the city’s chests since December of last year, according to data provided by the World Gold Council. This amount of gold normally does not belong to New York, said John Reade, a global market market for Asia and Europe.
“You only keep it when extraordinary circumstances occur,” said Read to CNBC.
The threat of gold prices has prompted banks, investors and American merchants to move precious metal in the goods exchange center and other chests in New York, when it would otherwise be stored in London.
“The imminent prices in Canada and Mexico will affect both gold and silver,” said Nicky Shiels, responsible for metal strategy at MKS Pamp.
The supply chains were disrupted due to this huge suction sound, which was the United States to import gold before potential rates.
John Reade
Global Gold Council
Trump recently said the scanning American prices on imports from Mexico and Canada Are we going before after a postponement on their implementation expires next week. On February 1, the American president signed decrees imposing 25% prices on Canada and Mexico products.
But some have said that investors fear that the tariff threat will come beyond two countries.
There are concerns that hide that wider rates also come into play in the United Kingdom and Switzerland, which are also large physical golden poles, added Shiels.
“The biggest concern is that there could be a coverage rate on all imports in the United States and that it could also apply to gold,” said Nikos Kavalis, Managing Director of Metals Focus.
Canada and Mexico are among the largest gold exporters in the United States. THE The United States is the most golden in CanadaFollowed by Switzerland, Colombia, Mexico and South Africa, according to data from the OEC World.
Since Trump’s electoral victory last November, future American Golds have largely exceeded their international counterparts, creating arbitration opportunities for those who have been able to move large amounts of ingots in the United States, according to the industry observers to which CNBC spoke.
Price
They attributed the movement largely to traders who seek to close short positions, or those who hold physical gold in New York expecting short term contracts to capture the excessive bonus.
Thursday, the gold contracts on the gold on the COMEX was negotiated at $ 2,930.6 $ $, while the price of gold spot in London was $ 2,901 – a difference of almost $ 30. The premium was wider in January.
American warehouses are now sticking four years of American demand for consumers and gold, according to Bullionvault data.
American interior production of gold in 2024 was estimated at 160 tonnes at the bottom 170 tonnes in 2023According to US Geological Survey data.
Merchants are of the opinion that Trump “could strike 100%” prices “on American gold imports tomorrow without making a breach of American gold prices, because there would be enough gold in the chests, said Ash.
Although there is generally no urgent need for physical gold deliveries, investors must be assured that they can be made – something that Trump’s prices threaten to disturb.
“Very few people have to make deliveries normally, but you must always be able to make deliveries,” said Reade of the World Gold Council.
“But if you suddenly fear that you can pay an import rate, then you don’t want your gold to London, you had to have it in New York before the price arrives,” he said.
Disturbance of the supply chain
“The supply chains have been disrupted due to this huge suction sound, which was the United States to import gold before potential rates,” said Reade.
A complicating factor is that Comex deposits largely make deliveries via kilograms barswhich are generally only available in selected regions such as China, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and India, he added.
“There is only a limited capacity for refineries to produce a kilogram,” said Reade.
“Suddenly, everyone tried to get me a kilogram that is eligible to be placed in Comex warehouses and ship them to New York, which means that other golden flows have been interrupted,” he added.
London, often called Terminal market for goldexperienced a great impact of change.
“While the market has changed the gold inventories of private chests from London to trunk boxes, the availability of metal in private safes in London has decreased,” said Kavalis de Metals Focus, Kavalis.
Large gold bars are also removed from London to other refineries from around the world where they can be melted and refined in kilobars, because the Standard ingots stored in London are bars of 400 ounces Rather than kilobars.
Gold reserves in London chests Felotted for the third consecutive month in January, the data from the London Bullion Market Association showed. The amount of gold reserves in January was 1.7% lower than December.
Golden exports from Switzerland to the United States In January, also reached the highest level in at least 13 years, according to a Reuters report, citing data on Swiss customs. And Singapore has sent more gold than it would normally do it in the United States, noted Kavalis.
Just to cover itself against these prices, gold has been shipped to the United States, and that “sucks the gold from the rest of the system,” said Reade.
