- Aggressive price campaign of President Donald Trump Creates doubts about the attractiveness and safety of American assets. But there are still some who believe that the United States will produce the best yields, despite an epic sale and signs of a changing world order. This is due in part to the domination of America in critical technologies.
The idea of ”American exceptionalism” in the world economy and the financial markets has quickly lost its favor this year while President Donald Trump embarks on an aggressive pricing campaign that creates doubts about American assets.
Actions have undergone an epic collapse and only partially recovered their losses. Dollars and treasury bonds are lose their refuge status. THE The economy can slip into a recessionFlower debt can start to overwhelm the “Exorbitant privilege” the United States appreciates, and The world already had problems of confidence with America.
On the other hand, markets in China and Europe have been relative sub-performatives this year after years behind the United States.
But there are still veterans in the market who believe that the United States is the place to be, due in part to the domination of America in critical innovations.
“ Technology prevails over prices’
Nourriel Roubini, economist and CEO of the Roubini Macro Associates council, believes that “technology prevails over the short -term and medium term prices.
The United States has leadership in key technologies and industries, so no matter who is the president, it wrote in a Publish on X Thursday. Meanwhile, China arrives in a “second near” and Europe is completely out of the image.
Roubini estimates that technological innovations will increase potential American growth by 200 basic points from 2% to 4% by 2030, while prices would result in growth of 50 basis, even assuming a permanent average rate of 15% after negotiations.
“Thus, technology prevails over prices even if Mickey Mouse or a clown should lead the United States! This does not matter and that American exceptionalism will remain and will be resilient independently of Trump given the hyper dynamism and innovations in the American private sector,” he added.
An essential element of Roubini’s thesis is that the nature of innovation itself goes from the production of an “initial growth push which escapes over time” to an exponential growth which accelerates and gives lasting advantages at first glance compared to the followers.
He underlined the Deepseek AI model which shocked Silicon Valley earlier this year, saying that it is not a revolution but an evolution that owes its existence to American companies like Openai and their years of enormous investments.
“Mag-7, hyperscalers and technological companies (in Nasdaq) would not care about prices,” he added. “They must continue and increase the massive IA capex to avoid becoming obsolete compared to each other.”
‘Stay at home’
Meanwhile, Ed Mardeni said that if Trump’s prices cause a recession, the United States would suffer less than international markets and savings.
“Although a certain allocation to the main international markets can be justified on a long -term horizon, we are sticking to our home investment Biases, “he wrote in a note early Wednesday.
It happened before Trump took a 90-day break on his “reciprocal rates” Wednesday afternoon and the exemptions from Friday evening on technological imports. But Trump also warned on Sunday that the prices will eventually arrive “Whole electronic supply chain.”
However, the United States benefits from a complete job, is a net energy exporter and has a flexible economy focused on services, with productivity growth strong enough to prevail over the pressures of the realignment of the supply chain and less immigration, said Mardeni.
On the other hand, the growth strategy focused on China exports may not work without American demand, while German manufacturers are crushed by China, he added.
“The United States has a lot of positive for that”
Then there is Mark Delaney, director of investments at Australiansuper, who manages $ 223 billion in assets.
He said to Financial time On Tuesday, the United States is still the most attractive region for long-term investments, even if it recognized that Trump prices were an “important volatility event”.
In fact, he has not reduced exposure to the United States in recent weeks in recent weeks, and there are more than half of the Australiansuper’s international assets.
“The United States has many more possibilities for this – strong economic performance (although this is given a little behind), strong growth in productivity, strong profits and, by all measure, many best companies in the world – all this makes it an attractive place to store capital,” said Delaney FT.
Even if global trade flows could be upset by prices, the companies in which he invests will probably be less affected.
Indeed, the prices target goods instead of services – for the moment – although any escalation of the trade war can possibly strike them too.
“Look at the main assets of any investor,” said Delaney. “There are not as much goods, these are mainly services, this is how the global economy has evolved.”
This story was initially presented on Fortune.com
