The retired counter-admiral Mark Montgomery weighs on the latest wave of attacks by Israel against Iran on “Fox News Live”.
China layer in the Middle East may not be as strong as Beijing thinks, such as Iran’s terrorist sanction regime – one of the allies closest to the CCP – faces Its potential endsaid experts at Fox News Digital.
However, China remains a major factor in Iran’s energy market – which is otherwise sanctioned by the United States and a large part of the West, according to Steve Yates, a principal researcher in Asian studies and in security policy at the Conservative Heritage Foundation.
“Iran has been a particular partner in the event that China has protected Iran from the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies for decades, generally by concerns of proliferation and sometimes for other reasons,” said Yates, who advised senior American officials on national security issues.
“And China has always been a weak point in the viability of sanctions because China would continue, sometimes open and obvious, and other times quietly and clandestinely, to continue the energy market which flows for Iran.”
This is what Iran Post-Ayatollah might look like if war with Israel led to the fall of the regime
Khamenei, on the left, XI, right (Iran Press Office; Getty / Getty Images)
It remains to be seen whether the existential threat to the Iranian regime has a major effect on the American-Chinese relationship, Yates said.
“I think in some ways, it’s theater – but a theater that counts, in what Beijing, Moscow and Tehran have tried to be somewhat [the] Nucleus of a new axis which was established with the United States and trying to peel the world of world and other places … of our orbit. “”
But China remains depends on the United States, in particular economically, so that Western actions in the Middle East can give President Xi Jinping’s break before jumping in the fray.
The main colleague of the Gatestone Institute, Gordon Chang, a pre -eminent analyst on China and US -China relations, said that he did not see a major Beijing offensive in the cards if Iran falls – but envisages potential uncertainty if not.
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“China has a military base in the region, in Djibouti, and it is not really big. And it is surrounded by Western military bases, including one of ours. So, no, I do not think that the Chinese have the military capacity to exercise power,” said Chang. “They must cross the Indian Ocean, and we are just not going to leave them.”
He also said that things were evolving so quickly and otherwise in this area of foreign policy that it can be difficult to really analyze the configuration of the field for a certain day.
“It’s a bit like the situation of the First World War.” The reason why the assassination of a minor fee figure [Archduke Franz Ferdinand] Transformed into conflict throughout Europe was because no one knew how to manage a complex situation, “said Chang.
“No one knew who was going to be on the side of whom. And the situation has deteriorated. It’s a bit like the situation we have now, in fact. It is a fluid situation.”
XI also has trouble at home, said Chang, a problem that could prevail over any concern of the CCP regarding the ultimate fate of Ayatollah. Chang said there was a conjecture as to whether Xi will be out of power as little as a few months, will remain like a figurehead or continue as is.
“We can see that he has lost a great influence and perhaps even control of the Chinese army, which is the most powerful faction of the Communist Party … Because of this, its risk calculation, is very different from what we think.”
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The main correspondent for Congress, Chad Pergram, reports on the division of legislators on the role of President Donald Trump in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
“And of course, for decades, we have always defined the interests of China in a different way in the way the Chinese define their interests. I mean, we have always said, well, it is in their interest to be responsible for supporting the international system. The Chinese do not see it in this way.”
THE Chinese navy is also overshadowed In capacity by Western Marines, he said.
However, he added that if Israel or the United States failed in their efforts to destroy Iran’s nuclear capacities, this could lead China to believe that the West is not infallible and turns its attention to its own conquests of choice.
“”[That] is not inconceivable, then China could be embraced to move against South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, whoever it is in its region, “said Chang.
“So it could really be Second World War In a sense, “he said, stressing that there are already real wars on three continents – Europe (Ukraine / Russia), Asia (the skirmish between Pakistan and India) – and” insurrections in North Africa that resemble wars “.
“All we need is one more war, and it looks like a world conflict,” he said.
