India has increased its oil imports from Russia and the United States in June, going beyond the combined purchases of traditional suppliers in the Middle East, reported the PTI news agency, citing data from the global commercial analysis KPLER.
According to KPLER, Indian refiners should import 2 to 2.2 million barrels per day (COPD) in Russian Brut in June – the highest volume in two years. This goes beyond the total volume of crude raw of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, which is expected to be around 2 million BPDs this month.
India crude oil imports from Russia amounted to 1.96 million b / d in May. Imports from the United States also increased, from 280,000 B / d in May to 439,000 b / d in June. Between June 1 and 19, Russian expeditions represented more than 35% of the raw contribution from India. “India’s June volumes from Russia and the United States confirm this resilience-focused mixture,” said Sumit Ritolia, main research analyst at KPLER.
“If conflicts are deepening or if there is a short-term disturbance in Hormuz, Russian barrels will increase in share, offering both physical availability and price aid. India can pivot stronger towards the United States, Nigeria, Angola and Brazil, although higher freight costs. In addition, India can exploit its strategic reserves (covering 9 to 10 days of imports) to bind any decipions. “
India, the third largest oil importer in the world, is obtaining almost 40% of its gross and about half of its gas through the Hormuz Strait, a key energy transit road now threatened due to Iranian warnings after Israeli and American military actions. Iran has threatened to close the Strait – through which a fifth of the world oil and most of the GNS of Qatari – but KPLER thinks that a complete blockade is unlikely.
“Although supplies are not affected so far, the activity of ships suggests a drop in raw charges of the Middle East in the coming days,” Ritolia noted. “The shipowners are hesitant to send empty oil trees (ballasters) to the Gulf, with the number of such ships falling from 69 to 40 years, and signs by the Oman Globe.”
KPLER attributes a low probability to a complete closure of the HORMUZ, citing the dependence of Iran with regard to the Strait for Exports. “Iran’s dependence on Hormuz via the island of Kharg (which manages 96% of its oil exports) makes a self-producing counterproductive,” said Ritolia. In addition, the largest Iranian client, China, imports almost 47% of its marinated Gulf Brut, and any disruption would have an impact directly on Chinese energy security.
Iran has also rebuilt links with the Gulf States such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which would be seriously affected by any disturbance. The provocation of a closure could disentangle these diplomatic gains and risk reprisals. “Any Iranian naval accumulation would be detectable in advance, probably triggering an American and allied preventive response,” added Kpler.
Change in the supply strategy in India is part of a broader trend since 2022, when Western sanctions against Russia have made its oil available at a reduced price. The part of Russian Oil in the raw mixture of India has increased from less than 1% to more than 40% in just over two years. These flows, detached from Hormuz, move via the Suez Canal, Cape Of Bood Hope or the Pacific Ocean, reducing exposure to risks.
According to KPLER, India imported around 1.9 million b / d from countries in the Middle East between June 1 to 19. This should reach 2.0 million b / d for the full month – still lower than the levels of May from 100,000 to 150,000 b / d.
(With PTI entries)
