By Wayne Cole
Sydney (Reuters) – Australian retail sales fell in December while the reimbursement for black friday the previous month, but the scam helped buyers to make a desperately necessary contribution to economic growth during the fourth quarter.
Data from the Australian Statistics Office (ABS) showed that retail sales dropped by 0.1% in December from November, when it had increased by 0.7%.
The result was firmer than analysts’ forecasts for a drop of 0.7%, helped by the fall in Cyber ​​Monday promotions in December of this year and the reduction of the month.
“The Cyber ​​Monday has led more expenses in household items, consumers, consumers have benefited from discounts on large tickets,” said Robert Ewing, head of business statistics at ABS.
Fourth quarter sales increased by 1.0% to $ 105.8 billion ($ 64.93 billion), exceeding forecasts for a 0.8% gain and the highest increase since 2022 .
The updating also led to the increase in volumes, households spent some of the billions of tax and subsidy reductions distributed by the government during the second half.
Expenditure should add approximately 0.2 percentage points to the gross domestic product, a low but vital contribution since the economy had been in plates payable by high mortgage rates and pressure of the cost of living.
A certain relief on the loan could be on the way with the markets adorned strongly, the Reserve Bank of Australia will carry out its first rate reduction in four years when it meets on February 18.
Under -term contracts involve a probability of 95%.
The Central Bank reported that it was opened upon a return in December and a surprisingly soft inflation report last week seemed to open the door to a quarter of work early.
“Disinflation took place faster than the expected RBA, so the commission will have the confidence required to start the rate reduction phase,” said Luci Ellis, chief economist of Westpac.
“We consider the RBA as being dependent on the remaining data from here and not in a hurry to move further,” she added. “Conditional on the additional drop in inflation and a certain softening on the job market, we see discounts in May, August and November, bringing the terminal rate to 3.35%.”
Adding cases for relaxation was the risk for the world’s rates for US President Donald Trump on China, Mexico and Canada.
Australia is a major exporter of resources for China and business taxes could hinder economic growth and basic products.
The markets reacted by dropping the Australian dollar down 1.6% to its lowest from the pandemic from 2020 to 0.6115 $.
