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When Exxon Mobil and Chevron report the results of the first quarter this week, investors will focus on the way in which Oil prices worship increased the risk of dividends and share buybacks for the rest of 2025.
Big Oil has returned in cash to investors through dividends and share buybacks a strategic cornerstone of its efforts to court Wall Street. US President Donald Trump’s world pricing announcements have sparked features of a lower recession and petroleum demand, which has prompted forecastists to reduce their prices for petroleum prices.
The drop in prices would give big oil less money to distribute to shareholders.
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Big Oil has returned in cash to investors through dividends and share buybacks a strategic cornerstone of its efforts to court Wall Street. (Getty Images / Getty Images)
“We believe that quarterly results will be overshadowed by the long -term prospects given the turmoil of the raw materials market,” wrote Paul Cheng, analyst in Scotiak, in a research note.
Investors will seek companies to describe how they plan to deal with sustained prices of lower oil, potentially share buybacks, reduce project expenditure or draw on cash stocks, analysts said in research tickets this month.
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Exxon and Chevron, the two largest American oil producers, report on Friday and the two should display a increase of the fourth quarter. Analysts provide for a profit of $ 1.73 per share for Exxon and $ 2.18 per share for Chevron, according to LSEG data.
Exxon and Chevron, the two largest American oil producers, reported quarterly results on Friday. (Istock / Istock)
Brent world reference prices are an average of $ 74.98 a barrel during the January-March quarter, up 1.3% compared to the previous quarter. US natural gas prices have increased by 30%.
On April 2, oil prices began a free fall after Trump announced prices on business partners.
Oil now oscillates $ 66 per barrel, Undressing analysts to model scenarios where prices remain in the 1960s this year or even decrease in $ 50.
| Teleprinter | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xom | Exxon Mobil Corp. | 108.57 | -0.06 |
-0.06% |
| CVX | Chevron Corp. | 138.73 | -0.34 |
-0.24% |
| COP | BP PLC | 29.19 | +0.19 |
+ 0.66% |
So far in April, Brent prices have an average of $ 66.79 per barrel. During the month, the US Energy Information Administration has greatly reduced its price prospects by $ 74.22 per barrel to $ 67.87 in 2025. For 2026, the EIA now provides an average price of $ 61.48, down $ 68.47.
Chevron can reduce redemptions if the low oil prices persist, analysts of four companies said. The second largest US oil company previously guided annual share buybacks between $ 10 and $ 20 billion.
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The company is reducing up to $ 3 billion in costs and set up to 8,000 employees.
BP, based in the United Kingdom, could also be forced to reduce share buybacks, said analysts, which would increase pressure on its already underperformative actions.
The BP Company logo is seen outside a service station on September 23, 2021 in London, England. (Photo of Leon Neal / Getty Images) ((Photo of Leon Neal / Getty Images) / Getty Images)
Chevron needs a Brent price of $ 95 to cover dividends and redemptions against $ 88 for Exxon, according to RBC Capital Markets. The two companies can cover dividends alone with prices in the mid -$ 50.
Assuming a Brent Prix of $ 60 in 2025, analysts from Bank of America Global Research Forecast Chevron will buy $ 11 billion in stocks this year, at the bottom of the company’s directives, with Exxon to buy around $ 13.5 billion, below its $ 20 billion.
Analysts of at least three companies agreed that Exxon is in a stronger position to maintain dividends and share buybacks, Point towards a cash excess of the balance sheet and efforts to reduce the cost of oil and gas production. Exxon said he was planning to buy $ 20 billion in shares per year until 2026, and last year paid $ 16.7 billion in dividends.
Chevron needs a Brent price of $ 95 to cover dividends and redemptions against $ 88 for Exxon, according to RBC Capital Markets. (Reuters / biting angus / Photo files / photo reuters)
“We believe that there is a higher probability than many of their peers who (Exxon) could maintain the pace of payment,” wrote Cheng de Scotiabank in a research note.
Exxon and Chevron did not respond to requests for comments.
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The likelihood that companies announce capital expenditure reductions are short -term, but could arrive in the future quarters, wrote Jason Gabelman, analyst at TD Cowen, in a post of April 11.
Expenses on shale assets and green energy transition projects would be the most ripe for cuts because shale production can stop faster and start, while energy transition efforts are not yet important for businesses, he wrote. About 55% of Chevron CAPE 2025 is in these two segments, while Exxon’s is less than 50%.
