China beat growth expectations in Q1, but US tariffs cloud outlook

MT HANNACH
4 Min Read
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China beaten the first quarter Economic growth expectationsBut the prospects for the rest of 2025 remain low as Beijing, for the impact of high American prices.

The latest data indicates Gross domestic product of China (GDP) increased by 5.4% during the January-March quarter compared to the previous year, beating analysts’ expectations in a reuters survey for an increase of 5.1%.

Meanwhile, retail sales, a key consumption gauge, just under 6% in annual shift in March after winning 4% in January-February, while factory production growth accelerated at 7.7% against 5.9% in the first two months. The two numbers have exceeded the analysts’ forecasts.

But these figures preceded President Donald Trump Rathets prices on Chinese products at attractive levels, which prompted Beijing to slap the rights of reprisals to American imports in an intensifying trade war between the two largest economies in the world which, according to the markets, will lead to a world recession.

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Shipping containers in Shanghai, China

The gantry cranes stand near the shipping containers at the port of Yangshan outside Shanghai, China, April 15, 2025. (Reuters / Go Nakamura / Reuters)

Analysts also indicate that an increase in exports in March in China – driven by factories rushing on expeditions to beat Trump’s latest rates – will strongly in the coming months when heavy American samples take effect.

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While several other countries have been swept away in American prices, Trump has targeted China for the biggest samples.

Last week, Trump raised the homework on China to 145%, which prompted Beijing to take up the samples from American products at 125% and to reject American commercial actions as “a joke”.

XI and LAM in Hanoi

The secretary general of the Vietnam Communist Party in Lam (R) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) leave after their meeting at the Office of the Central Party Committee in Hanoi on April 14, 2025. (Nhac Nguyen / Pool / AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

On a quarterly basis, the economy widened 1.2% in the first quarter, slowing 1.6% in October-December.

For 2025, the Chinese economy should increase at a rate of 4.5% of 4.5% in annual sliding, showed the Reuters survey, slowing down to the rate of 5.0 from last year and going down the official target of around 5.0%.

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Political decision-makers said on several occasions that the country had ample space and tools to strengthen the economy and that Prime Minister Li Qiang is committed to deploy more support measures.

Trump-China factory

President Donald Trump, on the left, and a worker works on a flexible production line of the printed circuit card in Suining, China. (Bonnie Cash / Upi / Bloomberg, Left and Costfototo / Nurphoto via Getty Images, right. / Getty Images)

Beijing has strengthened strengthening consumption as an absolute priority this year while trying to cush up the impact of Trump administration prices in its commercial sector.

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The Politburo, a higher decision of the Communist Party in power, should hold a meeting later this month to define its political program for the coming months.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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