Ahead of the penultimate day of the Champions League championship stage, the reigning champions of England, Spain and France are all at risk of automatic elimination.
When Manchester City If Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid host Salzburg on Wednesday (both at 8 p.m. GMT), the three competition heavyweights know that victory would make the final day much more comfortable.
The Champions League’s new unique 36-team league format means teams must finish between ninth and 24th place to earn a place in the knockout stage play-offs, while automatic progression through the top eight teams is not excluded for all three sides.
101GreatGoals.com takes a look at how close each of the established contenders are to being knocked out and the task ahead of them in their final two matches of this stage.
Man City: Danger in Paris?
Seven points from their opening three games put City on course to advance automatically, only for their subsequent form to reflect their surprising domestic struggles since November – by far the worst of Pep Guardiola’s almost entirely all-conquering reign.
Tame defeats at Sporting and Juventus occurred on either side of a 3-3 home draw against Feyenoord It was memorable for the wrong reasons, with the 2022/23 champions losing a 3-0 lead after the 74th minute.
That left them one point above the playoff places, but with a goal difference at least four better than any of the teams in the bottom eight.
With PSG undefeated at home domestically this season and in even greater need of a positive result, a point for City could be welcome and would almost certainly leave their fate in their own hands when they host a Club Brugge side currently two points above them on January 29. (8 p.m.).
A win would put them in a stronger position to finish between ninth and 16th and be seeded for the play-off draw. Only two wins would give them a chance of automatic qualification.
City were last eliminated in the opening phase of the 2012/13 season, when they drew all their home games and lost all three away in a group also containing Ajax, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Manager Roberto Mancini left at the end of the campaign.
Guardiola, who won the competition in 2009 and 2011 with Barcelona, has always reached the round of 16 during his 17 years as coach of the Spanish club, Bayern Munich and City.
The Spaniard’s shortest run in the competition as a manager came in his first season at the Etihad Stadium in 2016/17, losing due to the now abolished away goals rule after a 6-6 draw on aggregate against Monaco in the round of 16.
PSG: In the playoff places
2019/20 runner-up and semi-finalist in two of the last four seasons, Paris is in the most precarious position of the three titans before matchday 7, one point from escaping the elimination places.
Drawing may not be enough to lift them above the line. One point would put them above Dinamo Zagreb, who are immediately higher, if the Croatian club loses at Arsenal on Wednesday (8 p.m.), but Stuttgart, tied on points with PSG, hopes to win on Tuesday (8 p.m.) at Slovan. The Bratislava team is still looking for their first point.
PSG are on an eight-game winning streak but have not encountered opponents as potentially dangerous as City along the way. They will be hoping to save the best for last, having followed a one-point European run in four matches with a 3-0 victory at Salzburg on Matchday 6.
A defeat would increase the pressure before PSG travel to Stuttgart on January 29 (8 p.m.), where they will face opponents who started the year with three consecutive victories to place fourth in the Bundesliga.
Paris have endured several disappointing campaigns – they were eliminated at the round of 16 in 2021/22 and 2022/23 despite having Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar in their ranks – but have progressed from the initial stage each time during of their current campaign. 12 consecutive years of participation.
The last time they fell at the first hurdle of the competition was in 2004/05, when coach Vahid Halilhodzic was replaced by Laurent Fournier in February.
Current manager Luis Enrique has never been knocked out at the first stage when he has coached the Champions League, winning the title in his first season in charge of Barcelona in 2014/15.
The 54-year-old put Paris nine points ahead as part of an unbeaten start to 18 games in Ligue 1 this season, although they had to come from behind to win 2- 1 in Lens on Saturday.
“I am very happy with the victory”, declared the former Spanish coach afterwards, describing PSG as “in a good dynamic” and carrying “a lot of hope” for the Champions League.
Real Madrid: the holder threatened
Along with City, Madrid were the only team to win all six of their group stage matches and extend their own record by winning the Champions League for the 15th time in 2023/24.
Such an early exit seems unthinkable for the competition’s dominant force, but defeats to Lille and Liverpool and a home defeat to Milan mean Madrid are two points above the playoff places.
At home on Wednesday (8:00 p.m.) against a Salzburg team with five defeats and one victory, Madrid will be the big favorites to end the day with their heads held high – but the end of their run of two victories in all competitions could put them in the need a draw. result a week later (8 p.m.) in Brest, which currently occupies the places in the automatic round of 16.
Even the prospect of a play-off would be a surprise for a team featuring Vinicius Jr, Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham, not least because Madrid have reached at least the semi-finals in 14 of the last 16 seasons.
They have never been eliminated at the first opportunity in their 70 years of involvement, although they exited in the last 16 in 2018/19, sacking two managers in their first season following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo, all-time top scorer in the Champions League.
They were eliminated at the same stage the following season, losing both legs of the round of 16 2-1 against City under Zinedine Zidane.
Director Carlo Ancelotti won the Champions League twice as coach of Milan and three times as coach of Madrid, but the most successful coach in the history of the competition was eliminated three times in phase of groups.
Ancelotti’s Parma lost just one of their six matches, but were still eliminated in 1997/98, when the second-placed teams were knocked out. The Italian then finished bottom of a group with Juventus in 2000/01 and third with Napoli in 2018/19.
When do the Champions League round of 16 play-offs take place?
Teams finishing between the top eight and bottom eight will advance to the two-legged play-offs in the knockout stage.
The first legs will take place on February 11 and 12, followed by the second legs a week later. The draw to decide ties will take place on January 31.
When do the Champions League round of 16 take place?
The top eight teams and the winners of the play-offs will participate in the round of 16 first legs on March 4 and 5, followed by the return matches a week later.
The draw for the round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals will take place on February 21.
