What does this mean for the upcoming season, and how often do teams in these positions stay there when May rolls around? Let’s break it down.
Does being first at Christmas guarantee the title?
Historically, being in the lead on Christmas Day offers mixed prospects.
In 16 of the Premier League’s 32 seasons, the team top of the table at that stage has won the trophy, a success rate of 50%.
Liverpool, however, shows a less encouraging record. It’s the seventh time they’ve been first on Dec. 25, but they’ve only managed to convert one of those leads into the title, during the 2019-20 season.
Where will your team spend Christmas? 🎄#FestiveFixations pic.twitter.com/gvP1axTs40
–Premierleague (@premierleague) December 23, 2024
In fact, Liverpool have topped the table at Christmas more than any other English club in history, achieving this feat 21 times and winning the league 11 times.
Recent history shows how unpredictable it is to lead at Christmas. Arsenal, for example, topped the table last season for the fourth time in the Premier League era, but failed to win the title, as in their previous three attempts.
In contrast, Chelsea, Manchester City, Blackburn Rovers and Leicester City have all won the title each time they led on Christmas Day.
Interestingly, teams not in the top four at Christmas have sometimes come out on top to win the title.
This has happened four times, including last season when Manchester City came from fifth place, six points behind Arsenal, to win their fourth consecutive championship.
Who is in the European spots?
The current top four includes Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and a surprise contender: Nottingham Forest.
Fifth-placed Bournemouth could even sneak into the Champions League conversation depending on how other English clubs perform in European competitions.
Chelsea’s 04/05 record of 15 Premier League goals conceded is officially safe for another season 🤩 pic.twitter.com/dQe3ExglQC
– Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) December 22, 2024
Aston Villa and Manchester City occupy sixth and seventh places respectively, which could be places in the Europa League and Conference League, depending on the winners of the domestic cups.
It’s worth noting that last season’s Christmas top seven saw significant movement at the end of the campaign. Only West Ham (sixth at the time) dropped out, while Chelsea climbed from 10th place to finish in the top seven.
Relegation: who is in difficulty?
At the other end of the table, Ipswich, Wolves and Southampton occupy the relegation zone.
Southampton’s position looks particularly dire, as they are eight points behind at the bottom of the table. Wolves and Southampton have recently appointed new managers in a bid to turn around their fortunes.
It’s rare for the same three teams in the relegation zone at Christmas to stay there in May, but it does happen.
Last season, Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United all remained in the bottom three from Christmas to the final day.
📈🎄 pic.twitter.com/EMuwecR6Eo
– Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 23, 2024
This only happened in four other Premier League seasons:
- 2001-02: Derby, Leicester, Ipswich
- 2012-2013: Wigan, QPR, Reading
- 2020-21: Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United
Being last at Christmas offers little hope, with only four teams out of 32 escaping relegation in such a scenario. Exceptions include West Bromwich Albion (2004-05), Sunderland (2013-14), Leicester City (2014-15) and Wolves (2022-23).
Interestingly, two clubs from the Premier League era were in the top 10 at Christmas but were still relegated: Norwich City (seventh in 1994-95) and Blackpool (10th in 2010-11).
For context, the currently seventh-placed team – Manchester City – is unlikely to follow in those footsteps.
What awaits us?
As the league enters the second half of the season, Liverpool’s chances of converting their Christmas lead into the title remain uncertain given their history, while Southampton face an uphill battle to avoid relegation.
With European football on the horizon for several teams and a relegation battle intensifying, the Premier League promises plenty of drama in the months to come.
