The Eli Lilly & Co. logo at the company’s Digital Health Innovation Hub in Singapore, Thursday, November 14, 2024.
Huiying ore | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Elie Lilly cut its revenue forecast Tuesday as it said demand for its weight loss and diabetes drugs would not meet its high expectations.
Shares of the pharmaceutical maker closed down more than 6% on Tuesday.
Eli Lilly said it now expects full-year 2024 revenue of about $45 billion. That’s lower than the $45.4 billion to $46 billion that the company spent. scheduled for October. The new outlook would still mark a 32% increase in revenue from the previous year.
Eli Lilly has been scrambling to meet growing demand for its diabetes treatment Mounjaro and obesity drug Zepbound, investing billions to expand its manufacturing capacity for the company’s booming drugs called incretins. Efforts appear to be paying off: Food and Drug Administration in December reaffirmed its decision to declare the U.S. shortage of tirzepatide – the active ingredient in both drugs – over.
In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said the company has “tons of online supply” and “that type of growth is likely to continue.”
He also noted that the company will increase its manufacturing capacity and plans to produce at least 60% more salable doses of its incretin drugs in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2024.
For the fourth quarter, Eli Lilly expects revenue of $13.5 billion. The total includes about $3.5 billion for Mounjaro and $1.9 billion for Zepbound.
Wall Street expected revenue of $13.94 billion and $45.49 billion for the fourth quarter and full year, respectively, according to analysts surveyed by LSEG.
The lower outlook comes as Eli Lilly competes with Novo Nordisk and other smaller rivals for share of the explosive weight-loss and diabetes drug market. Eli Lilly is developing an obesity pill that would be more convenient for patients and easier to manufacture, and Ricks expects it to be approved from the start of next year.
“While the US incretin market grew 45% compared to the same quarter last year, our previous forecast called for growth to accelerate even faster for the quarter. This, in addition to lower than expected channel inventory at the end of the year, contributed to our fourth quarter results,” Ricks said in a statement.
The pharmaceutical maker also said it expects sales between $58 billion and $61 billion in fiscal 2025.
Eli Lilly is expected to report its full quarterly results on February 6.
