Far right looks for election breakthrough as Germany falters

A political tide raz crashes through Germany. This is firmly believes in the right -right nationalist alternative for Germany (AFD).

It is labeled “radical”, “racist” and “anti-democratic” by adversaries. The national intelligence service of Germany claims that the party is “unconstitutional”.

But if the polls are right, AFD will become the second greatest political force in Germany after the elections this Sunday.

It would be a huge change in tectonic plates, not only at home but across Europe.

Why is AFD so important, you might ask? The parts on the populist right have grown in support in a large part of Europe.

AFD also indicates Donald Trump. They share his “anti-reveal” message, hard to migrate and pro-fossil fuel. They also want to stop sending weapons to Ukraine and defuse tensions with Russia.

The Trump administration supports them immediately – publicly to the indignation of many Germans.

The fact is that Germany is not just any other country.

It is the greatest economy in Europe, one of its most influential nations. He always carries the weight of his Nazi past. In addition to the United Kingdom and France, it was one of the three large ones who helped shape and secure the liberal order and the defense structures of Europe after the Second World War and the Cold War.

Never before in post-war Germany, a hard-right part had such a success, while, at dawn to be identified as a threat to the Federal Republic and its liberal constitution.

The head of the influential opposition of France, Marine Le Pen, whose party is also considered to be extreme right, has moved away from AFD on the European scene, apparently judging its positions and its ethno-nationalist reputation too radical.

The long -standing hypothesis among the dominant current in the country and abroad had been that the dark past of Germany immunized it against any serious flirt with the extreme right.

But there are a lot about this election that makes observers change their vision of Germany. And I will come back to AFD, which vigorously denies its “extremist” label.

The Germans suffered a kick in the intestine – in terms of self -image and international reputation of their country.

For years, they have used to be admired – and envied – as an economic power of Europe.

Vorsprung Durch TechnikGraduate by “progress through technology” was an advertising slogan for Audi cars in the 1980s. For decades, he encapsulated Germany’s reputation in international imagination.

The country was considered modern, dynamic and technologically advanced. And the automotive industry was one of the main arteries that pumped wealth in the economic heart of Germany.

But fundamental defects have now been exposed in the German economic model.

He is widely considered as kaputt (broken) – Drawing too much on old energy industries with high energy intensity such as combustion motor cars and the chemical industry.

Critics question Germany’s lack of providents or the ability to move over time. Where was serious investment in R&D? In Big Tech? Ai?

To worsen things, during the 16 years of Angela Merkel as a chancellor – she resigned in 2021 – Germany has become more and more dependent:

• Exports to China
• cheap gas from Russia
• An American defense umbrella.

All this left Germany very exposed.

Donald Trump now says that Europe can no longer count on American support and security guarantees.

China has made rapid progress in the automotive industry and dominates electric cars technology. So far, less need for German imports.

And the large -scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia has left Germany rushing for alternative energy sources. The purchase of liquid natural gas, in the United States and others, is expensive, which results in financial pressure on many German companies with high energy intensity.

The result: the German economy is slow and sticky. As the greater member of the euro zone currency, this has an impact far beyond its borders. European allies are frustrated.

The German army is also a source of irritation (that is to say politely) among European neighbors. Berlin is a key power of the Defense Alliance, NATO. Donald Trump’s return to the White House means that Europeans must provide more of their own capacities.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised a zeitenende – A turning point – for the exhausted soldiers of his country, after the large -scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

However, the German army remains in a weakened state – less ready for the battle, we are told three years ago.

Partly because of its donations to Ukraine.

Germany, after the United States, was the largest donor of military aid to Ukraine and most political parties in Germany are favorable to the pursuit of kyiv.

AFD takes a very different position. “Peace” is one of the most common signs you see during their gatherings.

They want a rapprochement with Russia, to immediately stop sending weapons to Ukraine and use resources instead to constitute German armed forces to protect themselves at home.

More than 4,000 bridges in Germany are broken or in questionable state. I could barely believe my ears when I heard this for the first time. But it is the figure reported in a country whose infrastructure has been quietly collapsed for years due to chronic – public and private under -investment.

The punctuality of the train in Germany is appalling – worse than in the United Kingdom, which will stifle the tired British shuttle.

Digitization is also lamentable. Mobile telephony reception is uneven outside cities and people are always known to use fax!

But even if the recent German governments wanted to invest more, they faced legal limits on spending.

A debt brake was included in the German Constitution following the 2008/9 financial crisis, with a constraint on a new debt not exceeding 0.35% of GDP, except in national emergency.

The Germans no longer trusted their politicians.

They had seen the government spend a spiral in the country and abroad. Euro currency, on which Germany depends, has almost collapsed.

But what seemed to voters an anchor of financial stability, it now appears to many, a block of economic growth.

The lines on the debt braking reform were the final straw leading to the collapse of the outgoing German coalition and the SNAP elections this Sunday.

But, the new German government Beware: Breaking the Debt Brake will not be an easy task. You need a two -thirds majority in Parliament to change the German Constitution.

Migration is a huge problem in Germany. And a big vote for AFD.

It is far from being the only country to worry about migration levels in Europe, but Germany alone has welcomed more than a million asylum seekers, mainly Syria and Afghanistan, During the migrant crisis in Europe in 2015/16.

The country has also opened to 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees.

Many Germans were proud of what they called their “welcome culture”.

But a series of attacks by asylum seekers in the Middle East and Afghanistan has revived a debate on how German borders should be opened.

There were stab wounds, an assault of a machete, a car that struck civilians in a Christmas market and again during a recent union demonstration in Munich, where another little child was killed.

AFD insists on the fact that it is not racist or anti-migration, and that anyone is welcome in Germany if they arrive by legal means, obtain a job, contribute to the company and respect the standards and local culture.

The party says that it would immediately expel all immigrants who commit a crime and whoever arrives here illegally.

This position was applauded by many AFD supporters to whom I spoke during gatherings in the performance of Sunday elections – including young women who told me that they no longer felt safe in The streets.

It should also be noted that in May, a German court concluded that “at least an important part of the AFD” believed that anyone with a migrant inheritance was not “correctly German” – even if it held the German citizenship. He concluded that AFD was aimed at “granting German citizens with a context of migration only a legally devalued status”. This goes against the German Constitution.

Worried to be able to lose voters at AFD on the question of migration and borders, the German center on the left and in the center on the right has moved to the right in their rhetoric. This is a victory for AFD, regardless of the result of the elections.

Even if it becomes the second greatest force in Parliament, as expected, it is very, very little likely to make the next German government.

The Political System of the post-Second World War in Germany is designed so that no party could dominate parliament as the Nazis did after being elected for the first time in 1933.

The construction of coalitions is the name of the game. And there has been a so-called firewall since the end of the Second World War-a multipartite consensus to keep the extreme of the government.

AFD insists that he is conservative and libertarian, not a radical and right force.

He underlines his growing support base, in the West as well as in Eastern Germany and among young voters as well. He accuses opponents of trying to close it, close it and keep it out of power. It is, said, is anti-democratic.

Elon Musk made the headlines across Europe when he proclaimed in December that only AFD can save Germany.

The majority here still insists that their country must be saved from AFD.