The new year. A time for reflection, resolutions and accurately predicting each team’s outcome at the end of the 2024-25 Premier League season.
While we can’t accurately predict how often you’ll use that new gym membership over the next few months, or how well you’ll stick to that “new year, new me” mantra, Opta League Prediction The model helps paint a picture of what the table might look like by the time May rolls around.
Using odds from the betting market and Opta Power rankings, the model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss), based on teams’ historical and recent performances.
These results are then used to simulate the remaining matches in the league thousands of times to see how often teams finished in each position to create a prediction for the final table.
So, as the Premier League reaches its halfway point, pick up the last remnants of Boxing Day as we look at how the Premier League table could be shaping up in five months’ time.
Liverpool will lift the trophy
Unsurprisingly, Arne Slot’s side sit top of the prediction table, with a 91.3% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy.
The Reds are currently eight points clear having lost just once this season in all competitions. Despite worrying matters off the pitch – namely the continued uncertainty over the futures of Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, whose contracts expire next summer – Liverpool are in fine form.
They have won their last three league matches in a row, scoring 14 goals in the process. They scored six against Tottenham on December 22 before scoring five without reply against West Ham at the London Stadium on Sunday.
Can anyone stop them?
End 2024 with a victory in the capital 😍 #WHULIV pic.twitter.com/rIBrfWon7v
–Liverpool FC (@LFC) December 29, 2024
Manchester City will finish in the top four
Two victories in 14 matches in all competitions. By their standards, City’s form of late has been pretty abysmal.
But while it seems highly unlikely that the champions will retain their Premier League title this season, this is a team that can never truly be written off.
Given their dominance in previous seasons, Opta still gives them a 40.8% chance of finishing in fourth place. They are currently fifth after finishing the year with a well-deserved 2-0 win over Leicester – a result which manager Pep Guardiola described as a “relief”.
The drop zone
Unlike Forest, the predicted table makes for enjoyable viewing for fans of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton.
All three teams promoted from the Championship last season are set to go straight back down, with the struggling Saints having an 83.8% chance of remaining rooted to the bottom of the league.
New manager Ivan Juric said his style of football has similarities to death metal music, but he hopes there will still be life in his team for the second half of the season.
End of bottom half for Manchester United
United have a 14.1% chance of finishing 12th this season. Despite the arrival of new manager Ruben Amorim, the Red Devils have struggled for any consistency in recent weeks, having won four, drawn one and lost five under the Portuguese manager.
Their next three matches – Newcastle at home, Liverpool away and Arsenal away in the FA Cup – could ultimately define their season.
The predicted Premier League table
According to Opta:
1.Liverpool
2.Arsenal
3.Chelsea
4. Manchester City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Newcastle United
7. Villa Aston
8. Bournemouth
9.Tottenham
10.Fulham
11.Brighton
12.Manchester United
13. Brentford
14. Crystal Palace
15. Western Ham
16. Everton
17. Wolves
18. Leicester City
19. Ipswich Town
20. Southampton
