Confirming the conclusions of many observers, Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom says Israel may decide to stay in southern Lebanon beyond the 60-day withdrawal period specified in the ceasefire.
Failure to withdraw within 60 days would constitute a further violation of the US-French-backed ceasefire agreement concluded on November 27 between Lebanon and Israel.
Israel has already violated this agreement hundreds of times.
But what would it mean if Israel failed to withdraw from South Lebanon after this 60-day period? Here’s what you need to know.
What’s going on?
Since the ceasefire, Hezbollah has stopped launching rockets into Israel and Israel has ended the incessant bombing of Beirut’s suburbs, the eastern Bekaa Valley and the south.
But Israeli troops are still in the south, blowing up and demolishing homes and other infrastructure.
They also prevented people from returning to their homes in the south, shot at Lebanese citizens and killed at least 33 Lebanese residents last month.
Israel is supposed to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within 60 days from November 27, to be replaced by UNIFIL troops, followed by the Lebanese army.
But Israel now says Hezbollah’s vast arms in the south and its reconstruction efforts could lead it to “reconsider” the withdrawal timetable.
What happens if they don’t keep their promise?
Nothing.
There is no mechanism to enforce the ceasefire agreement other than a resumption of hostilities.
Western embassy sources told Al Jazeera that the only guarantees of implementation were US promises that Israel would respect.
Hezbollah could apparently resume firing rockets at Israel, but is unlikely to want to re-engage.
Hezbollah had already responded to Israeli violations in fire a warning rocket at a military site in the Kfarchouba hills on December 2, which landed in an open space and caused no casualties.
Israel responded by killing nine people in Lebanon.
What are the terms of the ceasefire?
Israel must withdraw all its troops from southern Lebanon in 60 days and Hezbollah must move its military infrastructure north of the Litani River with the deployment of the Lebanese army to southern Lebanon.
What about all the southerners who want to go home?
Immediately after the ceasefire agreement, people left the makeshift shelters – mostly set up in schools across the country – which had sheltered them for more than two months.
Staff at a shelter visited by Al Jazeera in Sidon, southern Lebanon, said that by 10 a.m. on the day of the ceasefire, all the displaced people had left to return home.
But many are not yet home.
On the second day of the ceasefire, Israel’s Arabic-language military spokesperson effectively announced that the entire south was territory prohibited area.
Some people say they went to their villages on the first day of the ceasefire, but were prevented from returning later.
Many southerners are either in villages as close to their village as possible, or with their families in areas that the Israelis do not occupy or prohibit people from accessing.
What else happened?
On Christmas Day, Israel struck in the Bekaa Valley, between the towns of Talia and Hizzine, in the Baalbek region.
Acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati called for the creation of a ceasefire monitoring committee to pressure Israel to respect the terms of the ceasefire, but this only resulted in little effect so far.
Not only did Israel violate the ceasefire by continuing its attacks, but it also moved deeper into Lebanese territory.
On December 26, Israeli forces moved to Wadi al-Hujeir, eight kilometers from the UN-demarcated Blue Line that separates Lebanon from Israel.
What is UNIFIL doing about this?
UNIFIL issued a statement on December 26, calling for an end to “actions that risk ending the fragile cessation of hostilities.”
He called for the “rapid withdrawal” of Israeli forces and the deployment of Lebanese armed forces in southern Lebanon, as well as the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, which states that Hezbollah moves its forces to north of the Litani River and Israel passes below the Blue Line.
UNIFIL also expressed “concern over the continued destruction” by Israeli forces “in residential areas, agricultural lands and road networks in southern Lebanon.”
