Israel and Hamas may be nearing deal for ceasefire in Gaza and release of hostages, but hurdles remain

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U.S. and Israeli officials said Israel and Hamas were close to reaching a ceasefire and hostage release agreement on Monday, following midnight “breakthrough” negotiations.

Qatar, which plays the role of mediator, reportedly submitted a draft agreement to Israel and Hamas on Monday. ceasefire agreement end the war in Gaza, the Reuters news agency reported, citing an official close to the talks.

“I think the pressure is building for Hamas to agree, and I think Israel has also achieved a lot of its military objectives in Gaza, and therefore they are in a position to be able to say ‘yes’,” he said. he added. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters.

Sullivan said Israel and Hamas had been close to an agreement before, and things had broken down, but on Monday there was a “general feeling that it was moving in the right direction.”

“The question now is: Can we all collectively rise to the occasion and make this happen?” Sullivan said.

“We are at an advanced stage of negotiations,” an Israeli political source told CBS News, saying a deal could be reached within hours or days. “There is progress in all components of the agreement formula.”

What happened with the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas?

Israel and Hamas have been holding indirect talks aimed at ending the war for more than a year. war in Gaza and the return of dozens of hostages in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

The Biden administration is pushing to reach an agreement before the end of its term and Trump’s inauguration on January 20. On Sunday, President Biden spoke by telephone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the ongoing negotiations. The White House said the two leaders discussed the deal based on the arrangement Mr. Biden outlined last year.

The deal presented to Israel and Hamas appears similar to this deal, according to a copy of the deal from mediating sources seen by CBS News and a senior Israeli official.

The deal consists of three phases, according to the copy viewed by CBS News, each to be negotiated as things progress.

During the first phase, which would take place over a 42-day ceasefire period, Hamas would release 33 female and child hostages, as well as hostages over the age of 50. For every woman or child hostage returned to Israel, Israel would release 30 Palestinian women and children from its prisons. Hamas would release all hostages over the age of 50 and Israel would release 30 Palestinian prisoners aged 50 or over.

On the first day of this ceasefire, Hamas would release three hostages, according to the document seen by CBS News. On the seventh day, Hamas would release four hostages. Thereafter, Hamas would release 3 hostages taken in Israel every seven days, starting with the living, then returning the bodies of those who died.

During the exchange of hostages and prisoners, there would be a complete ceasefire in Gaza to allow the entry of aid, says the draft seen by CBS News. International humanitarian groups and the United Nations would resume operations in Gaza and rebuilding of its infrastructure, such as water, electricity and sewage systems, would begin. There would also be negotiations on the next phase of the deal.

The second phase of the deal would involve the release of all male Israeli hostages and the withdrawal of the Israeli military from Gaza, according to the document seen by CBS News.

The third phase, which would be partially negotiated in previous phases, would include the exchange of bodies of deceased hostages and prisoners, the start of the reconstruction of Gaza and the opening of its borders.

Despite intense mediation by the United States, Qatar and Egypt, the talks repeatedly remained stuck on several key issues, including the details of the exchange, whether the ceasefire would be permanent and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.

While each side accuses the other of backsliding, the war continues.

Dozens of Palestinians are killed every day in Israeli strikes, and most of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents are crammed into squalid tent camps, their neighborhoods in ruins. Aid groups are struggling to deliver desperately needed aid, and experts have warned of starvation.

In Israel, families of hostages have held weekly rallies to demand a deal for their release, fearing that their loved ones will die in the harsh conditions of their captivity as the fighting drags on.

What were the main points of contention in reaching a ceasefire agreement?

Hamas and other groups are still holding around 100 hostages captured in the October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel that sparked the war, in which militants killed around 1,200 people, for most civilians, and kidnapped around 250. The Israeli military said a third of the hostages died, but suspects the real number could be around half.

Hamas is demanding the release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including high-ranking militants convicted of orchestrating attacks that killed civilians. Israel is reluctant to release these prisoners, especially since one of the masterminds of the 2023 attack, the leader of Hamas Yahya Sinwarwho was killed by Israel in October, was a former prisoner released under such a deal.

The two sides exchanged lists of names, with Israel demanding more information on the hostages still alive to ensure they get out first.

Hamas said it would not release the remaining hostages without assurances that the war would end. The Israeli military offensive has killed more than 46,000 people in Gaza, most of them women and children, according to local health authorities, who do not specify how many of the dead were militants.

Hamas likely fears that Israel will resume its offensive – and increase its intensity – once the hostages are freed and the militants no longer have their most valuable bargaining chip.

This is exactly what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to do. He said Israel would not end the war until it destroyed Hamas’s military and government capabilities and ensured that the Palestinian militant group no longer posed a threat.

The lack of trust cuts both ways: Israelis fear Hamas will prolong negotiations on the second phase of the deal, extending the ceasefire indefinitely while the hostages languish.

Talks almost collapsed due to disagreements

The talks nearly collapsed last summer when Netanyahu said Israel would maintain a lasting presence in the Philadelphia Corridor, a strip of land along the Gaza-Egypt border.

Israel says Hamas has long smuggled weapons into Gaza through tunnels under the corridor and must control the area to prevent Hamas from rebuilding. Egypt, a key mediator, says it blocked the tunnels years ago and opposes any Israeli presence on the Gaza side of its border.

Israel also demanded a mechanism to inspect people returning to their homes in northern Gaza, from where around a million people fled following Israeli evacuation orders at the start of the war. Their return is a key Hamas demand, the details of which are still being worked out.

Israel says people returning to the north should be searched for weapons. This would likely require an Israeli presence in the so-called Netzarim Corridor, a strip of closed roads and military installations stretching from the border to the sea just south of Gaza City.

The Palestinians are opposed to any permanent Israeli occupation, although Hamas has reportedly shown flexibility on the timing of Israeli withdrawal.

Israel says Hamas can never rule Gaza again, but has yet to approve a realistic plan for an alternative government. Without internal rivals, Hamas was able to regroup quickly after Israeli operations, even in the hardest-hit areas, and still controls much of the territory.

The Biden administration has long pushed for a grand deal under which a reformed Palestinian Authority would govern the postwar Gaza Strip with the support of Arab and Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, which would also take the step history of forging ties with Israel.

But Arab and Muslim leaders say they will only adhere to such plans if they include the creation of a Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza annexed by Israel, territories captured by Israel in the Middle East War of 1967.

The Israeli government is opposed to the creation of a Palestinian state and has ruled out any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Netanyahu said Israel would maintain unlimited security control while delegating governance to politically independent Palestinians. But none appear to have volunteered, and Hamas has threatened anyone who cooperates with Israel in managing the territory.

Hamas, however, declared itself ready to cede control of Gaza to other Palestinians. Late last year, it agreed to an Egyptian-brokered plan under which a group of independents would govern the territory under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority, which has not yet accepted the proposal.

Hamas also demanded the lifting of the blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt after it seized power in 2007, which experts say is necessary for the reconstruction of Gaza.

Lifting the blockade, however, would allow Hamas to achieve a major victory and, ultimately, rebuild its military capabilities. This is another failure for Israel.

Haley Ott, Marwan Al-Ghoul, Michal Ben-Gal and Mais Al-Bayaa contributed to this report.

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