“The United States needs an accident to reset,” said Rivigo Deepak Garg founder. And he bet that the next one is not far away.
With $ 9.2 billions of public debt at the end of 2025, Garg says that the United States may have no choice but to trigger a recession to survive its post-comfortable borrowing frenzy.
“Most people do not understand that the United States must force a recession every 5 to 7 years to refinance all excessive debt debt,” he said.
“To be able to sell these bonds, you need a type of cocovated drop. 50% +. What happened last week is not enough,” warns Garg. “The 10-year-old American yields are back above where they were before the fear of the price.”
The numbers paint a dark image. The $ 9.2 billions of dollars set for maturity represent 25.4% of the total of $ 36.2 billions of national debt – and almost 31% of the American GDP planned in 2025. Almost 6.5 billions of dollars will need refinancing in the first six months of the year.
A large part of this debt was issued during the era of the almost zero interest rate. With the average cash flow rate, now at 3.2% – it has been the highest since 2010 – the cost of the reversal is soaring.
Analysts expect an additional increase of 1% of service costs, as was the federal deficit reached 1.8 billion of dollars in 2024, with more than 1 dollar billion already spent per year for interest payments.
Political options are quickly shrinking. The FED is under pressure to reduce rates to continue to refinance costs in check. At the same time, more bond issues could flood markets and push even higher yields.
The Trump camp, according to reports, has weighed extreme measures – from the monetification of the gold reserves of $ 758 billion in the country to the use of prices as leverage with foreign debt holders.
CBO projections show a dangerous drift: government expenses climbing 24.4% of GDP by 2035, while income is 18.3%. This leaves an enlarged gap and an increase in interest such as the price of delay.
Garg suggests that in 2033/34, inflation will have discreetly eroded debt, AI will have stimulated productivity, or hard assets like gold and Bitcoin will hold the line. Until then, the recession can be a policy – not an accident.
