Crossings to the United States from Mexico have declined sharply since last year. But countries south of the U.S. border are nervously waiting to see whether President-elect Donald J. Trump will order mass expulsions.
The possibility that millions of undocumented immigrants could be deported – in what would be the largest deportation program in American history – has sent shockwaves across Latin America and sowed confusion among migrants and asylum seekers.
“We see dark times coming for the migrant community,” said Irineo Mujica, Mexico director of People Without Borders, a transnational advocacy group. “Anyone who falls prey to the Trump administration will now be devoured, chewed up and spat out. »
What is the situation at the border between the United States and Mexico?
Mr Trump said Mexico was allowing an “invasion” of migrants into the United States. But the current situation on the ground tells a different story.
Illegal border crossings between the United States and Mexico down since Junewhen President Biden issued a decree primarily to prevent undocumented migrants from receiving asylum at the border.
That month, U.S. Border Patrol agents recorded 130,415 migrant apprehensions, a sharp decline from the more than 170,710 recorded the month before. The numbers in November were even lower: U.S. officials registered 94,190 people.
This is a drastic change from a year ago. Illegal crossings for November 2023 exceeded 242,300, a record at the time.
How have the United States and Mexico reduced crossings?
Critics who argue that asylum is legal and a basic human right say Mr. Biden’s decision was a short-term solution to a complex problem.
Under Mr. Biden’s order, restrictions must be lifted when the number of people attempting to cross illegally each day falls below 1,500 for a week. This did not happen. But he has heavily destroyed border crossings and allowed authorities to expel those who cannot prove they would be in danger if returned to their country.
Mexico has also cracked down on people heading toward the U.S. border.
He has deployed National Guard troops at immigration checkpoints from north to south. More recently, authorities have bused migrants further south in Mexico – in what officials and academics call a migratory merry-go-round. They stopped them from jump on trains heading north and dispersed the caravans which no longer reached the American border.
In 2023, Mexico suspended the issuance of humanitarian cards which allowed asylum seekers to study, work and access basic services in Mexico. Below By law, they are supposed to stay in the state in which they seek asylum. But many use the cards to travel north without being stopped, officials say.
Following this shutdown, between October 1 and December 26, 2024, Mexican security forces saidThey have arrested more than 475,000 migrants, almost 68 percent more than the number apprehended during the same period in 2023, government data to show.
What is the status of migrants waiting in Mexico?
As Mexico’s strategy changed, many migrants found themselves stranded.
“By not giving them cards, they could no longer access public services or enter the legal market,” said Andrés Ramírez Silva, who until September was head of the National Commission for Assistance to Refugees.
The situation is untenable, advocacy groups warn. More and more migrants have become easy prey for organized criminal groups, who extort them.
“Many people continue to arrive” in Mexico, said Mauro Pérez Bravo, former president of the citizen council of the National Migration Institute. But they live in “vulnerable conditions,” he added, working in low-paid jobs or sleeping in shelters, landfills, construction sites or on the streets.
How is Mexico preparing for mass expulsions?
States bordering Mexico worked in coordination with the federal government to set up shelters to provide food and health services.
They organize transportation for Mexicans who wish to return to their country of origin. In Tijuana, a border city south of San Diego, municipal officials coordinated with churches, bus companies and humanitarian groups to prepare for arrivals, said José Luis Pérez Canchola, director of the Office of Migration Services. the city.
He worries that mass expulsions from the United States will strain Tijuana’s migrant resources, noting that many of them are likely unaccompanied minors or in need of medical care.
Ensuring that people don’t stay long in Mexican border cities like Ciudad Juárez is a major priority, said María Eugenia Campos, governor of Chihuahua state, which shares a vast border with Texas and New Mexico. .
“The state of Chihuahua cannot become a sanctuary state” for migrants and deportees, she said.
Until this month, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had said her country would not accept foreign expulsions. On Friday, she reported the opposite.
“We will ask the United States that, to the extent possible, migrants who are not from Mexico can be returned to their countries of origin – and if not, we can collaborate through different mechanisms,” he said. she told reporters, adding that her government had “a plan,” without giving details.
Have the factors driving migration changed?
Not really.
About 392,000 Mexicans were displaced due to conflict and violence in 2023, according to the Internal Displacement Observatory, which compiles federal government data. It was the highest figure since record keeping began in 2009.
The situation is somewhat similar in Central America. In some countries, criminal gangs and drug cartels have driven many people to flee.
By the end of 2022, Honduras had more than 240,000 people internally displaced due to insecurity, according to a report. recent report by the International Organization for Migration.
In Guatemala, the factors that push people to flee — inequality, poverty, climate change, economic instability and violence — have not improved much despite the election of a new president, Bernardo Arévalo, an advocate for the fight against corruptionsaid Aracely Martínez, a migration researcher at the Universidad del Valle in Guatemala City.
“We have a new government whose campaign proposed fundamental changes, but we still don’t see direct results,” she said.
Still, the number of Guatemalans registered at the U.S.-Mexico border fell to nearly 8,000 in November, from more than 20,000 in January 2024, when Mr. Arévalo took office, according to data from the US Border Patrol.
What is the situation elsewhere?
Venezuela and Cuba, which have faced harsh U.S. sanctions, will likely refuse large numbers of deportation flights.
Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador signed asylum agreements with the first Trump administration requiring people, primarily asylum seekers from Latin America, to first seek refuge in those three countries before applying to the states -United, although this policy has not been implemented in Honduras. and El Salvador.
THE the most concrete step back Honduras President Xiomara Castro opposed Mr Trump’s promise to carry out mass deportations. He said this month that bases housing US military forces would “lose all reason to exist” in his country if he kept his promise.
In Guatemala, the government denied as “false” reports that officials open to welcoming expelled foreigners.
In December, Panama reported the migration of 4,849 people through the perilous Darién Gap – the stretch of jungle that has become a popular migration route – the fewest numbers in more than two years. Some experts see this is a likely sign of migrants delay their projects until after Mr. Trump’s election, as well as Panama’s efforts to limit undocumented migration takes effect.
“We cannot declare victory, but for the moment we are slowing down — the figures say so — the flow of migrants,” Javier Martínez Acha, Panama’s foreign minister, said in an interview.
In El Salvador, Mr. Trump could find an ally in President Nayib Bukele, close to members of the president-elect’s entourage.
The Bukele administration has not spoken publicly about the mass deportations. Asked about specific preparations for mass expulsions, an operator at one of the call centers set up in El Salvador to provide information to Salvadorans in the United States said, “We can’t anticipate.”
Jody Garcia contributed to the report from Guatemala City, Gabriel Labrador of San Salvador and Mary Triny Zea from Panama City.
