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Global demand for oil will only drop at least 2040, according to a new forecast by the largest independent energy merchant in the world, in the last signal that economies will find it difficult to break their dependence on oil.
Vitol, which exchanges about 7% of the world supply of oil every day, expects global demand to peak at almost 110 million barrels per day at the end of this decade, then retired to current levels of around 105 million minutes in 2040.
“The demand in 2040 should be tied today,” he said in his long-term perspectives of the demand visible by the Financial Times and is expected to be published on Sunday. This is the first time that the Private Commercial Company has published its internal calculations on the demand for energy.
The forecasts distinguish Vitol from the International Energy Agency, which expects the demand for oil to peak at 105.6 million MN B / J in 2029. The prediction also differs from those manufactured by BP.
The British major is widely read Energy perspectives In July, the demand for oil would be placed at the end of this decade, then fell at around 91.4 mn b / d in 2040. Even this was 6% higher than its last forecasts, which indicates that BP expects Also to a slower energy transition than we thought previously.
The spread between the various forecasts reflects the challenges of forecasting long -term oil demand, in particular although the pace of adoption of new technologies such as electric vehicles and sustainable aviation fuel remains uncertain.
Vitol’s optimistic prospects occur only a few weeks after the election of Donald Trump, the American president committing to increase the production of fossil fuels. The company said that growing populations, economic growth and urbanization will support petroleum demand despite efforts to reduce carbon emissions by transitioning to cleaner fuels.
The consumption of certain petroleum products, such as petrol, was to decrease, said Vitol. It provides that global petrol demand will drop by 4.5 minutes B / d by 2040, consumption already falling in China due to the mass deployment of electric cars.
However, these decreases will be offset by increased demand for plastics made from petrochemicals and liquefied oil gas (LPG) as heating and cooking fuel in developing economies, according to Vitol analysis.
The petroleum demand from the petrochemical industry was to increase by 6mn b / d by 2040 to represent a fifth of all the oils consumed, he said. Meanwhile, GPL consumption should increase by 1.7 million B / d during the period, because more and more people in developing economies pass from more dangerous solid fuels, such as charcoal, at bottled gas.
Among raw material traders, Vitol was one of the most bullish for the long -term force of oil demand, acquiring the greatest refinery in the Mediterranean last year.
So far, this strategy has succeeded and has made Vitol one of the most profitable companies in the world by employee. He made net benefits of $ 15 billion in 2022 And $ 13 billion in 2023 While geopolitical disruptions revolved oil markets.
Vitol belongs to around 450 senior partners and employs around 1,700 people, mainly distributed in shopping centers in London, Geneva, Singapore and Houston.
