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Your guide on what the US elections of 2024 mean for Washington and Le Monde
We must trust Donald Trump’s instinct, explains Mike Johnson, president of the House of Representatives. Alternatively, Johnson and his caucus should run by shouting in the opposite direction. It is too late for Republicans to return to a normal party – Trump belief is their organizational principle. But they could play the loyalist by amadalizing Trump from the edge. In addition to their employment, the future of the global economy and the retirement fund of each American depends on it.
Their task is complicated by the fact that Trump always thinks he is a winner. Try to stand in your place. From his birthplace abroad of Obama from 2011 to his conviction in 2024 as a criminal, and so many points between the two, Trump was almost annual for death. But his phoenix continues to go up. Trump is a fantasy whose deepest fantasy – which he is an unstoppable winner – continues to come true. Why would a small torment on the market stop it?
The starting point is that Trump is a hammer and the rest of the world, as well as half America, is a nail. Sometimes the hammer can focus on certain nails, or soften its blow, but it is always a hammer. The fact that some of the donors closest to Trump, such as the New York Head Fund manager Bill Ackman, are surprised by his world tariff war is a mystery. Trump has sworn in almost all campaign speeches to release the trade war in which we are now.
He blamed foreigners for having tore America since the mid -1980s. Note, his obsession was for Japan, not on the Soviet Union. Trump has always been more angry with allies and friends. His deepest contempt is now reserved for Europe and Canada. The extrapolated psychologists of the Trump domain colony tried to impose on its own brothers and sisters. If your instinct is to tear people, including those closest to you, suppose that it is everyone’s method.
The mystery is the reason why so many people – billionaire colleagues from ACKMAN to the Venezuelans based in Florida – have looked back to miss who is Trump. A commentary of comments have been wasted, accusing the bad people of Trump’s disturbance syndrome. The real TDS afflicts those who continue to see a rational actor, or an economic chess game, where it does not exist. The entire market probably suffers from this syndrome. Shortly after changing on Monday morning, a false press release surfaced which said that Trump would announce a break on his prices this week. The markets have more than erased their opening losses. All these earnings, in turn, were destroyed when the White House delivered a denial.
If an online even can transform a lower market into a recovery of bulls in the space of a minute, and vice versa, Trump has the world in his palm. The slightest rumor that he could be healthy can trigger a purchasing frenzy. The Roman emperors would envisage the swing which forced the fingers to a man. However, at some point, perhaps imminent, Trump could be forced to take a break at least some of his functions of “Liberation Day”. This will trigger a large rescue gathering. But his break will not be safer than wandering driftwood. The same could apply to its threats of a new 50% price escalation on China.
The markets will applaud all the bilateral tenders that Trump plans to conclude with more influence applicants – Japan, China and India should be watched closely. Investors should also pay attention to the fact that these transactions will be concluded between foreign governments and Trump personally, not his administration. The departments of the Treasury, Trade and US trade representatives are often out of the loop. Given the lack of boundaries between Trump’s public role and private investments, the scope of barters not linked to the band is excellent.
The idea that Trump’s impact will be limited to the economy negotiated on goods is also a vow. Foreigners have a critical part of the Debt of the American Treasury. The continuation of high demand for an asset in which the world loses confidence is the difference between a Trump recession and a Trump depression. On this subject, European governments seem to have better instincts than equity and fixed income markets. Rather than degenerating the trade war, the EU only makes a modest reprisal toolbox think. It is not because Brussels thinks that Trump is likely to kiss committees. This is because he fears that a trade-for-tat commercial spiral is breaking the global financial system.
Anyway, this teaching moment is unnecessarily late. Trump’s sensible washers have lost their credibility. There is no school of realism of foreign policy or commercial mercantilism which could explain the actions of Trump. If you want to predict the world, study its psychology. While Trump is in charge, stay short of America.
