For decades, the question of whether and how the Palestinians could build a state in their homeland was at the center of the Middle East policy – not only for the Palestinians, but for the Arabs of the region, many of which consider the Palestinian cause almost like their own.
Forcing the Palestinians to leave their remaining territory, say the Arabs, would condemn the Palestinian state and destabilize the whole region in the process.
It was therefore a nightmare for the Arab neighbors closest to the Palestinians, Egypt and Jordan – and a dream for the far right government of Israel – when President Trump proposed to move everyone out of the Gaza strip and on their soil, An idea that he repeated At a press conference at the White House with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Tuesday.
Egypt and Jordan have responded with categorical “n °” – even if their reasons are not all made up of pure concern for the Palestinian fate: Cairo fears what Palestinian refugees in Sinai would mean for the security of the Egypt. Activists could launch attacks to Israel from Egyptian soil, inviting Israeli reprisals, or being recruited in the Sinai local insurrection that Egypt has been fighting for years. The king of Jordan must count with a population which is more than half of the Palestinians, therefore accepting more of these refugees could increase more tensions.
This refusal was safeguarded by political self-employed and opposition personalities in Egypt, as well as spokesperson for the country’s authoritarian government, stressing how the Palestinian question can even unify the most bitter political opponents.
Khaled El-Balshy, editor-in-chief of one of the rare Egyptian media remaining who are not pro-government and the chief of the Union of National Journalists, published a statement on Wednesday calling Mr. Trump “a violation clear of human rights and international laws. »»
Moustafa Bakry, a strong government deputy, suggested, without giving details, that Egypt could postpone the trip with force. “Egypt can move forward with other measures, because the Egyptian army can never allow it,” he said in an interview on Wednesday.
But Trump has shown little respect for the concerns of the two countries, their sovereignty or the idea of ​​the Palestinian state.
“They say they will not accept,” Trump said about Egypt and Jordan at a previous meeting with Mr. Netanyahu at the Oval Office. “I say they will do it.
If he continues with his proposal, the president may have ways to fold them on his will. Egypt and Jordan are among the best recipients of American military aid; Trump has mentioned funding in recent weeks, without publicly threatening to solve the Gaza problem. With Egypt Economy in crisisThe government depends on loans, including the International Monetary Fund, in which the United States is the largest shareholder.
One of the reasons why the United States has given billions of dollars to Egypt and Jordan over the years is their special status as the first Arab countries to accept peace treaties with Israel. The United States has negotiated these agreements after years of conflict, considering them the key to the security of Israel. The arrangements have long been considered fundamental to the stability of the Middle East.
Egypt has cooperated closely with Israel on security In his reduced peninsula of Sinai, who borders Gaza and Israel. But while Egypt and Jordan are in terms of speech, and sometimes more, with Israel, their populations have never stopped seeing Israel as an enemy, especially after its last attack on Gaza.
Analysts claim that the incentives to keep aid in the United States, which represents a limited part of the budget of each country, are minor compared to their fears of alienating their populations by seeming accomplices of what many consider to be cleaning Ethnic Palestinians. Although the leaders of the two countries have frequently developed little dissent, often using repression to silence internal criticism, analysts say that they cannot afford to ignore public opinion.
“It is not a joke against Trump, especially for Egypt and Jordan,” said Paul Salem, vice-president of international engagement at the Washington Middle East Institute. But as “it would really be a bridge too far for a large part of public opinion,” he added, “there is no other option for an Arab chief. I don’t see what they could do else.
For President Abdel Fattah El-Sissi of Egypt, the problem is particularly sensitive because he tried to rally public support by struggling as a champion of the Palestinians. Popular discontent on creeping inflation and government mismanagement had increased before the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023, which allowed Mr. El-Sissi to Look at a certain popularity With strong denunciations from Israel and promises to stand alongside the Palestinians.
But the brilliance has dissipated over the war and the Egyptian social media revolved with relations of signs that the Egyptian leaders cooperate with Israel. The government has arrested dozens of Egyptians who protest against Israeli actions.
Mr. El-Sissi and his allies tried to thwart dissatisfaction, the Egyptian pro-government media who frequently deceive the role of Egypt in the supply of humanitarian aid to Gaza and pro-government politicians. (Egypt was one of the mediators of the agreement, with Qatar and the United States.)
Allowing the Palestinian trip to Egypt “destroying the account of” I defend the country, “said Maged Mandour, Egyptian political analyst.
Egypt also considers the possibility that the Palestinians settle in mass in Egypt as a threat of serious security, according to government officials, diplomats and analysts. Officials fear that members of militant groups among the Palestinians forcibly could launch attacks in Israel from Egyptian soil, inviting Israeli military reprisals.
Egypt also beware that Hamas, the Islamist group which controls Gaza, can stir up militancy and spread its influence in Egypt. Cairo has spent years trying to cancel political Islamism and an insurrection home.
Jordan, with its much smaller population – including many people of Palestinian origin – is perhaps even more vulnerable. The Jordan monarchy also had a tense story with militant Palestinian factions.
The far -right Israelis have long spoken of Jordan, as the place where the Palestinians have forced to leave Gaza and the West Bank should make their house, which makes people fear in Jordan that if people from Gaza are forced to go out, Israel would then turn to the West Bank.
Many, if not all, would probably be forced to go next to Jordan, which is already unstable by tensions between citizens of Palestinian origin and those who are not, say the analysts.
However, analysts said the hard government of Israel seemed so confident of the United States for its actions that it could be willing to destabilize relations with its neighbors.
But relying on support in the United States to cross its ambitions on the painful objections of its neighbors will not be sustainable in the long term, said Ha Helyer, principal researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London and at the Center for American Progress in Washington. He argued that “the only way for Israelis to have long -term sustainable security in the region is that they must really integrate into the region.”
Some experts, including those close to the Egyptian government, have kept the hope that Trump simply took an extreme starting position that would soften on negotiations.
As a businessman, “he will withdraw when he will not work,” predicted Samir Farag, a former Egyptian military officer who often comments on Egyptian security affairs in the media, in an interview on Wednesday .
But Mr. Hellyer said that the rhetoric of some people close to Mr. Trump who supported the movement plan and stressed that even the The West Bank should be Considered the Jewish land would make the Arabs consider all Trump plan with extreme suspicions.
A much more limited version of the plan could be “theoretically acceptable” for Egypt and Jordan, he said: “But they ruin any possibility of this, because the framing of all this now is:` `We want the eliminate . ‘”
