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The population of the United Kingdom will increase by approximately 5 million to 72.5 million in the decade to 2032, according to new data, motivated by more international migration than previously expected.
During the 10 years in mid-2032, the population should increase by 4.9 minutes, or 7.3%, from 67.6 min to 72.5 million, the National Statistics Office said Tuesday.
The increase should come entirely from net migration, while natural change – the difference between births and deaths – should be around zero.
The ONS said that he now thought that long -term international migration would be greater than that of previous projections. His latest forecasts also assume lower fertility and an increase in life expectancy.
James Robards of the ONS said that forecasts were “based on current and past trends, and are not forecasts on what could or not happen in the future”.
He said that the latest projections also highlighted one more and more agingThe number of people over the age of 85 projected to double to 3.3 million by 2047. “This is partly due to the aging of the Baby-Boom generation, as well as to the general increases in the Life expectancy, “said Robards.
The ONS specifies that the national projections of the population are not forecasts and do not directly take into account changes in policy or future and economic changes. They are based on a long-term net international migration hypothesis of 340,000 people per year from mid-2018, against 315,000 previous projections.
Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy, King’s College London, said: “These projections are almost certainly overestimated because they do not seem to take into account the strong fall of the net migration which is already in progress, because we Savings of the statistical separation on the visas delivered. »»
ONS figures Published last November showed that net migration to the United Kingdom exceeded 900,000 in the year until June 2024, the highest annual total ever recorded, but fell 20% in 12 months to June 2024 .
Portes added that the figures of the ons published on Tuesday assume that fertility will stabilize “when in recent years it has decreased considerably”. The ONS now requires a long -term fertility rate of 1.45, against 1.59 in previous projections.
The latest figures have shown that the fertility rate in England and Wales fell to 1.44 children per woman in 2023, the lowest since comparable data began in 1938.
The number of children under the age of 15 is expected to decrease by 797,000, from 12.4 million to 11.6 million, by mid-20132, according to the ONS.
On the other hand, the number of pension age age should increase by 1.7 million over the same period, or 14%, from 12.0 minutes to 13.7 million, taking into account the expected increase in age From the state pension to 67 years for 67 years for both sexes.
The projected population growth of the United Kingdom contrasts with the population which is already shrinking in many countries, including Italy, Japan and China. The German population should also start to decrease in the coming years, according to forecasts from the United Nations population.
From the prospects until 2047, the ONS said that “net migration should be the only source of population growth in the United Kingdom over the next 25 years”.
