Ukraine’s diplomatic situation was upset over last week because its main ally, the United States, has reversed several positions.
US President Donald Trump announced on February 12 that it started direct talks with Russia to end the war, overthrowing the promise of its predecessor that there would be “nothing in Ukraine without Ukraine”.
The same day, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth echoed the Russian diplomatic language invoking “realism” when he declared to the partners of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels who “returned to Ukraine Borders before 2014 is an unrealistic objective “and that” the United States does not believe that membership of NATO for Ukraine is a realistic result of a negotiated regulation. »»
Possible NATO membership is an American promise to Ukraine since 2008, and the United States has, throughout the war, supported a restoration of the border of Russia recognized in Ukraine in 1991.
The German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius described the unilateral concessions as “clumsy” and “an error”.
Worse was to come
Tuesday, when Trump’s negotiation team arrived in Riyadh to start the talks, Trump Blamed Ukraine To start the war and involved that he had stolen aid, causing an angry response from the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“Today, I heard:” Oh, we were not invited ” [to talks in Riyadh]. Well, you have been there for three years. You should have finished three years ago. You should never have started, “Trump told Mar-A-Lago journalists.
The large -scale war began in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Trump said Zelenskyy’s approval rating was 4% and that he had “never seen accounting” of what he alleged was $ 350 billion in the United States in Ukraine.
The International Institute of Sociology of Kyiv, which conducts national surveys in Ukraine, questioned the approval rating of Zelenskyy at 57% this month.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which follows military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, the United States has donated $ 114 billion and the European Union of $ 132 billion over three years.
Zelenskyy kyiv journalists said the next day that Trump was taken in “a disinformation network”.
Trump responded with more criticism of Zelenskyy, displaying on X that a “modestly successful actor” had become “a dictator without election” who had “done a terrible job”.
Europe also has been shocked by the position of the American government.
US vice-president Jd vance Europeans repressed for having restricted freedom of expression and reduced democracy in an address at the Munich security conference on Friday, suggesting that the parties on the far right avoided by traditional politicians were the true expression of the will of the people .
“We see in America a president who admires autocratic systems,” said the next Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, and a “vice-president who tells us how to manage our democracy”.
“We no longer know if the Americans are still by our side as they did after 1945,” he said.
“ Quick fix is a dirty business ”
Ukrainian politicians have also expressed reservations about NATO’s credibility as an Alliance.
Other European leaders have criticized the Riyadh process as a sham.
“Any quick correction is a dirty business … Any agreement behind our back will not work,” said Kaja Kallas, head of foreign policy of the European Union, on X.
“Peace will only do by force,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. “This requires difficult and long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, a strong NATO and progress in the membership negotiations in Ukraine with the European Union,” she said.
Zelenskyy twice during last week rejected American proposals to formalize US-UKrainian economic relations because they lacked security guarantees. Hegseth presented him with a recovery plan based on the exploitation of Ukraine wealth On February 12, and Vance brought him back to Munich on Friday.
This plan seemed to be based on what Trump said in an interview on February 10. “I said [Ukraine] That I want the equivalent of, like, of $ 500 billion in rare land, and they essentially agreed to do so, “said Trump, Fox journalist, Bret Bret Bare.
Zelenskyy estimated that Ukraine had received $ 98.5 billion in American military and financial support.
“But we cannot count up to $ 500 billion and say:” Make us $ 500 billion in minerals “. This is not a serious discussion, “said Zelenskyy on Wednesday.
No siege for Ukraine
Moscow has been bullish since Riyadh talks were announced.
The vice-president of the Russian National Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, on February 12, confirmed the provocative position of Moscow for the exchange of Russian land that Ukraine takes place in Kursk With one of the Ukrainian lands in Russia.
“The proposals of Ukrainians on” the exchange of territories “are nonsense, the only way to heal is to” feel again like Russians, “wrote Dmitry Medvedev in his Telegram channel,” said the carrier Word of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov went further on Sunday, denying that Ukraine had a siege at the negotiating table because she lacked sovereignty.
“This country cannot really answer for its words,” said Peskov in an interview on Russia today. “Whenever it is necessary to make a certain adjustment during negotiations with them, for their deficit of sovereignty and the deficit of self -confidence. Which will not go anywhere.
On Monday, the permanent representative of the UN of Russia, Vasily Nebenzy, insisted on the terms of peace that the Russian president Vladimir Putin described last June. Ukraine should make Donetsk parties, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson that Moscow does not control, he said, because she had “irrevocably lost these regions, abjure of adhesion to NATO and remains neutral.
Moscow currently controls approximately two thirds of the Donetsk, three -quarters of Zaporizhia and Kherson, and 99% of Luhansk.
The Denmark Defense Intelligence Service declared a report on February 11, claiming that Russia rebuilt its soldiers in preparation for a war against NATO, with the support of China, Iran and Korea from the North.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Estonia published its annual intelligence report the next day, agreeing that Russia was preparing for a war with NATO, and saying that the duration and outcome of the Ukraine War would determine the factors to find out if this wider war was prosecuted.
The Institute of the Study of War, a Washington-based reflection group, has published a report on economic, industrial and labor of Russia.
“Russia will probably be confronted with a number of questions of equipment, labor and economic problems in 12 to 18 months if the Ukrainian forces continue to inflict damage to the Russian forces on the battlefield at the rate current, “he said.
Russian economy suffered from “increased and unsustainable war spending, growing inflation, significant labor shortages and reductions in the sovereign fund of Russia,” he concluded, “the United States can Use the enormous challenges that Russia will face in 2025 as a leverage to guarantee critical criticism to obtain concessions criticism. “”
