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Russia and Ukraine have accepted a Limited ceasefire To stop attacks against energy infrastructure, the first important step towards de -escalation since the start of the war on a large scale more than three years ago.
It was not immediately clear how and when the partial ceasefire settles. Wednesday, Ukraine And Russia The accusations of exchange of attacks on the energy infrastructure of the other, highlighting the lack of confidence between the two countries and the way in which any agreement will be tenuous.
Strikes against energy facilities were a key element in the efforts of each country to weaken the other. Russia has launched repeated attacks against the electrical network of Ukraine to undermine its war effort by making life as difficult as possible for civilians, according to experts. Ukraine’s strikes on Russian facilities aim to reduce revenues from Russian sprawling oil industry, which has been used to finance the country’s army.
The strategy behind the attacks
Russia started to attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in October 2022 after having become clear that its initial plan for winning a fast victory had failed. Moscow opted for an attrition war in which Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has become a key target.
Ukraine has started On several occasions the energy infrastructure of Russia At the beginning of 2024 to try to inflict pain at the heart of the Russian economy – its oil and gas industry – and Limit fuel supply to its soldiers. kyiv’s objective seemed to be twofold, say the experts: to reduce Russia’s oil income and produce a psychological effect by provoking large -scale fires in critical infrastructure facilities.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was a key element in Moscow’s efforts kneel. The objective, according to energy experts, has been to stifle the energy resources that feed the economy of Ukraine and, ultimately, its war effort. But it also seems intended to make life so unbearable for people – Immerse them in the cold and the darkness – That it breaks their morale.
Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the former Ukrenergo chief, the national electricity operator of Ukraine, said that Russia has constantly changed its objectives and tactics to undermine Ukraine’s ability to defend its energy system.
Moscow used Complex waves of long -range drones and ballistic missiles To overwhelm the Kyiv air defenses. After Ukraine began to strengthen its main electrical substances with concrete bunkers, Russia has moved to Directly striking thermal power plants and to attack Less protected survey linked to nuclear power plants.
The effect on Russia
In the past year, Ukrainian drones have deepened in Russian territory, Oil riffineriesDeposits, storage units, pipelines and pumping stations. The attacks have disrupted the oil flows which cross the oil terminals of the Russian sea port and the Druzhba pipeline, which takes crude in some European countries.
This threatened to undermine Moscow’s income from energy sales abroad. It was not possible to independently determine the amount of oil income in Russia was affected by the attacks.
Attacks on oil refineries have reduced the country’s refining capacity by around 10% at a given time, According to Reuterswhich calculated the effect of damage.
But Russian oil giants were also able to To quickly repair certain damage. According to Mikhail Krutikhin, an independent analyst of Russian energy living in Oslo exile, damage inflicted on Russian oil refineries “have never been critical.”
Krutikhin said in a telephone interview that Russia could still redirect the crude oil flows from a damaged refinery since the country has so many refineries. Sometimes refineries had to start producing jet fuel that was more sulfur, he said.
“It’s bad for the environment, but fighter planes can continue to fly,” said Krutikhin. However, he added that attacks could produce long -term damage, as certain parts of oil refineries could take years to be produced and installed.
Sergey Vakulenko, an energy expert at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a research group, said that Russian oil companies did not have to spend more than a billion dollars to repair the damage inflicted by Ukrainian attacks.
The effect on Ukraine
Since the fall of 2022, Moscow has repeatedly used drones and missiles to strike sub-states that distribute electricity, power plants that generate it and, more recently, gas facilities.
THE Kyiv economy school Considers that damage to the energy sector of Ukraine reached at least $ 14.6 billion. Several hydroelectric and thermal power plants have been completely destroyed by attacks.
At the end of last year, the total capacity for total generation of Ukraine electricity fell to some 22 gigawatts, less than half of its level before DIXI GroupA Ukrainian Energy Research Organization.
Electricity shortages have forced Ukraine to impose Rolling breakdowns at the national level to facilitate tension on the grid. Some days, the kyiv districts, the capital, had as little as four hours of electricity. Many civilians have used candles on lit houses and relied on pocket lamps for mobile phones to navigate the unlit streets.
Water pumping systems have sometimes failed, which makes citizens difficult to live difficult because the flow of running water to their homes has been cut. During the first winter of the war, long lines were trained in kyiv wells as Residents transported water jugs Back to their unheated apartments.
However, Russia has failed in its attempts to collapse completely from the energy system of Ukraine. Ukraine has endured attacksThanks to the aerial defenses provided by the West which allowed it to gradually intercept more Russian missiles, 24 -hour works by engineers to repair vital equipment and the Residents’ energy savings ingenuity.
Ukraine has also relied on its three operational nuclear power plants, which Russia has avoided targeting to prevent a nuclear disaster, to meet half of the country’s electricity needs during certain periods.
Who has more to win?
Experts say that it is difficult to determine which country is to earn more than one ceasefire on attacks targeting energy infrastructure.
Mr. Kudrytskyi said that a break would give Ukraine a crucial time to repair instations and power plants without the threat of new strikes.
The ceasefire would also give Ukraine time to reconstruct its stocks of critical spare equipment, including precious transformers necessary to transmit electricity from power plants to people’s houses. Ukraine has burned its stocks in order to replace the damaged equipment.
For the Kremlin, the suspension of Ukrainian attacks would mean that war and its effects would seem even further for the Russian public. Moscow would not have to fear that such attacks can damage critical oil infrastructure.
