Will recapture of presidential palace change course of Sudan war?

The scenes of the jubilant soldiers in Khartoum mark an important advance in an offensive which has seen the army of Sudan seize the expanses of territory in recent months.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) lost control of the capital at the start of the war and has been fighting for two years to regain rapid support forces (RSF).

Now they have taken over the presidential palace and believe they are on the right track to win back the rest of the capital. But they are far from winning the war.

The complex, which includes the Historical Republican Palace, is a symbol of power and sovereignty, important for the government led by the military and its story as legitimate leaders fighting a “terrorist militia”.

It is also a strategic victory.

After cleaning the external districts of the Grand Khartoum, the army took a large part of the city center, pushing the RSF fighters outside the key sites such as government buildings and far from the army’s general seat, according to an army spokesman.

This means that the RSF has in fact lost its control of the capital, even if its fighters are still present in Khartoum.

But it is not clear how far the front line has moved. RSF fighters are still scattered in the city center and parked in part of the airport. They also occupy the territory south of the palace.

Bloody fights should continue while the army is trying to wedge the remaining RSF units. The paramilitary force has already shown that it can retaliate despite its weakened position, launching a drone attack at the palace which killed a certain number of Sudanese journalists and army officers.

A complete victory of the army in the capital could reset the leadership of the war or harden the territorial division which divides the country between the two enemies.

The RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, controls most of the Darfur region in western Sudan and certain parts of the South.

The government supported by the military, led by the army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, controls the east and northern Sudan.

The two men worked together and made a coup together, Before a power struggle between them exploded in the civil war in April 2023.

Total control of Khartoum could help the army to complete its takeover of Central Sudan, where it has torn off the territory of the RSF in recent months.

This can also create a momentum for the SAF to challenge General Hemedti in his Bastion of Darfur, especially in the city of El Fasher, which has been under the RSF seat for almost a year.

But many observers believe that there is a danger that Sudan drifts in the de facto partition, the two parties at war and their donors have rooted in their influence areas.

The RSF strives to create a parallel government in areas it controls, to bring together allied groups to sign a political charter and a constitution last month in Nairobi.

His intention was to show that despite the setbacks of the battlefield, there is still a powerful force – and that his desire to take control of the country remains unpt.

The people of Sudan brought the weight of this brutal civil war, which inflicted a massive death, of the destruction and violations of human rights to civilians.

The United Nations described the situation in the country as the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. More than 12 million people have been forced to flee their homes and millions of people faced acute food shortages, parts of the country conducted in famine.

Khartoum is one of the places that should achieve famine conditions soon, having been subjected to a widespread looting of RSF soldiers and restrictions using the Sudanese government. Thus, a change of power in the city could make a big difference for humanitarian conditions.

But for most residents of Sudan, it means that for the moment, it is likely to change.

According to UN officials. And the two were accused of war crimes, although the criticisms distinguished the RSF for accusations of mass rape and genocide.

The army hopes that the recovery of the presidential palace will prove to be a staging post for a wider ultimate military victory.

But although the SAF has an impulse, it is unlikely that one or the other of the parties can win a victory which allows them to govern the whole of Sudan, said the international crisis group in a recent report.

However, the two parties have promised to continue fighting for the rest of the country, and efforts to relaunch peace talks so far have failed.